Israel’s Endgame in the Golan
Last week the IDF extended its presence in the Golan Heights sending troops into a demilitarized zone that acted as a buffer zone between the occupied Golan Heights and Syria. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu justified the move claiming that the collapse of the Assad regime ended the 1974 ceasefire agreement that created the buffer zone and that the move was done out of concern of militants capitalizing on the security vacuum to launch attacks against the Israeli occupied Golan Heights (while Israel annexed the territory and the United States recognized Israel’s claims to the land, the international community generally views the Golan Heights as illegally occupied under international law). Israeli officials have given mixed messaging surrounding the move both saying that the presence would be temporary and that they would remain in the buffer zone for the foreseeable future. Netanyahu also announced plans to double the number of Israeli settlers in the Golan Heights in coming years.
Critics have noted that in the past Israel’s “temporary” presence have often become permanent. The current Syrian government has complained to the UN about Israel’s actions and its continued air campaign against Syrian targets. Several Arab governments, most notably Saudi Arabia with whom Netanyahu has been seeking to normalize relations, condemned Israel’s violation of Syrian sovereignty.
Over the last week many Israel watchers have questioned what the ultimate goal of the Jewish state’s moves in the Golan. Personally, I’m skeptical of Israel’s stated motives behind the move and think that there is more going on here than Israel is letting on, but I’ll admit that there is a healthy dose of speculation in what follows. When looking at Israel’s history with the Golan, the Israeli government seems to consistently move the goal posts.
An abandoned tank sits in the Golan Heights
History
Beginning in the late 19th century, the zionist movement attempted to settle the Golan. However, by 1920 the settlements had faltered due to a combination of local Arab resistance and Ottoman policies opposing Jewish migration to Palestine. With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Golan Heights fell under the French Mandate of Syria.
Due to the Golan Heights strategic value due to its elevation and being the primary source of water for Lake Tiberias (Sea of Galilee), both Syria and Israel made claims to the territory following the 1948 war. A Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) was established in the Golan as part of the Syrian-Israel armistice to which there were frequent violations on both sides prior to the 1967 War.
Nimrod’s Fortress in the Israeli-Occupied Golan Heights looks down on the fertile Hula Valley.
The former Israeli Minister of Defense Moshe Dayan admitted to Israel’s hand in these clashes along the DMZ in 1976. During an interview with Israeli reporter Rami Tal, Dayan said,
“After all, I know how at least 80 percent of the clashes there started. In my opinion, more than 80 percent, but let's talk about 80 percent. It went this way: We would send a tractor to plow some area where it wasn't possible to do anything, in the demilitarized area, and knew in advance that the Syrians would start to shoot. If they didn't shoot, we would tell the tractor to advance farther, until in the end the Syrians would get annoyed and shoot. And then we would use artillery and later the air force also, and that's how it was.''
During the 1967 War, Dayan ordered the IDF to seize control of the Golan Heights and the slopes of Mount Hermon (Jabal al-Shaykh). During the course of the war, Israel expelled between 80,000-100,000 Syrians from the Golan allowing just 7,000, mostly Druze, Syrians to remain. Shortly after the war, Israel offered to return the Golan in exchange for peace, however less than a month after the war, Israel began construction of Jewish settlements in the territory.
In the 1970s, Israeli politician Yigal Allon proposed expanding the Golan to include the Syrian province of Qunaitra and establishing a sovereign Druze state as a buffer zone between Israel and Syria. Allon’s plan also asserted Israel’s right to settle and directly administer portions of the territory it had conquered in 1967. The Allon plan was never officially adopted and by 1981 Israel formally annexed the Golan Heights, even offering citizenship to the Syrian Druze that remained there.
Despite Druze protests and a general rejection of Israeli citizenship, Israel continued to settle the Golan in the 1980s and 1990s. In 1999 and 2010, Israel and Syria nearly reached an agreement to normalize relations in exchange for a return of the Golan to Syria. With the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 and the Trump administration recognizing Israel’s claims to the Golan, it appears that Israel has abandoned any plans to return the territory to Syria in exchange for normalizing relations.
Land Grab?
So why am I skeptical of Israel’s security justifications for the IDF’s incursion into Syria? First, throughout the civil war, Israel has actually aided Syrian rebels near the Golan Heights and provided medical treatment to those injured. This includes many of the Islamist groups that are ideologically aligned with HTS. Such actions have fueled unfounded conspiracy theories that ISIS is an Israeli creation. Throughout the Syrian Civil War, rebel groups rarely if ever targeted Israel. Moreover, Israeli intelligence would have a pretty good grasp on the capabilities of Syrian rebel groups. While HTS cut through Assad’s forces like a hot knife through butter, this had more to do with the weakness of Assad than it did to with fighting capacity of HTS.
So after all that, why did Israel send troops into the Syrian Golan? To the most cynical Israel critics, the answer is fairly simple, it was a land grab done by a Netanyahu government seeking to bolster its damaged reputation after the failures of 7 October 2023. Over the past two decades, the Israeli electorate has lurched to the right and have become more supportive of expanding territory through annexation of disputed lands. Strengthening Israel’s hold on the Golan through expansion into the buffer zone surely plays well with a significant portion of Israel’s electorate. Recently, former Israeli PM Naftali Bennet opined along these line in the Washington Post,
“The colonially imposed borders and arrangements that have defined the region for the past century are eroding; nobody knows what the map will look like when this all shakes out. Rather than adhering to imposed national identities, the new regional order will likely be sociologically organic, set along ethnic, religious, tribal and sectarian lines. As the new Middle East takes shape, Israel cannot idly sit by. We must protect our interests and keep the worst actors at bay.”
I think some of the above plays into the Israeli calculus here, but I think it is likely a little more complex than a simple land grab. For much of the past eight years, Netanyahu has engaged the Arab World in pursuit of normalization deals. This is best exemplified in the Abraham Accords. The most-prized country in this effort is Saudi Arabia, however Saudi Arabia’s demands, especially since 7 OCT, have often included a path toward Palestinian statehood. This is a bridge too far for any Netanyahu government and this is where the Golan (and Gaza) come into play.
Land for Peace?
Like a good hand in poker, it helps to hold all the cards and when that isn’t possible, its helpful to hold more cards than your opponent. Netanyahu, Likud, and successive Israeli governments have spent the last fifty years creating “facts on the ground” in the West Bank and strengthening Israel’s case for retention of so-called “Judea and Samaria,” and Netanyahu is seeking to do the same thing in the Golan Heights with his pledge to double the population there. Israel already has U.S. recognition of Israel’s claims to the territory, but Netanyahu knows that if he is going reach a deal with his regional neighbors it will require a sacrifice.
Over the past year, Israel appears to be establishing a permanent presence in Gaza and with its recent move in the Syrian Golan, it appears that it may do the same there. These two territories represent possible bargaining chips that Israel can play in future negotiations with its neighbors. Personally, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Israel and the U.S. offer a weakened and desperate Syria a combination of sanctions relief, Israel’s withdraw from the buffer zone, and to cease its targeted bombing campaign of Syrian military infrastructure in exchange for Syria recognizing Israel’s claims to the Golan Heights and a full normalization of relations between Israel and Syria.
Netanyahu is known for moving the goal posts and playing hardball and I believe he will used every resource at his disposal to get his way. Especially if the U.S. continues to play along with Israel’s flagrant violation of international law, Netanyahu is going to press every advantage he can gain to stay on top in Israel. I believe the U.S. and international community should take a stronger stance against Israeli actions in the Golan, I’m skeptical an outgoing Biden administration and incoming Trump administration will have the will power to do the right thing here.
