Sectarian Bloodletting or Last Gasp of a Dying Regime
The “fog of war” has settled over the ongoing clashes and the truth probably lies somewhere in between. Most Western media outlets have painted the events through a lens of sectarian reprisal killings, but some on social media have challenged this narrative. I hope to write something more substantive about the history of sectarianism in the Levant later this week, but in the meantime I would like to share a couple of social media posts to demonstrate the competing narratives floating around X/Twitter where many analysts like to pontificate.
Israelis, Palestinians, and Double Standards
Yesterday the Wall Street Journal published an op-ed titled “If Indians and Pakistanis Can Relocate, Why Can’t Gazans?” in it Sadanand Dhume argues on behalf of President Trump’s plan to relocate roughly two million Palestinians. The crux of his argument is that population transfers are not new and they work. He cites examples such as the Greco-Turkish war following WWI and most notably the infamous partition of India and Pakistan. While he acknowledges the difficulty of Trump’s scheme his rationale is applied selectively. Many critics were quick to point out that if the roles were reversed, its unlikely that the WSJ or other major media outlets would give voice to the argument.
Making Sense of Trump’s Gaza Plan
On Tuesday evening, President Trump announced that the U.S. would take ownership of and rebuild Gaza while relocating the enclaves roughly 2.3 million inhabitants elsewhere. Previously the president had floated the idea of relocating Gazans to Egypt and Jordan to which Arab governments have flatly rejected. Trump’s announcement prompted a flurry of praise, criticism, and questions including: Was he serious?, Is this feasible?, What is the price tag? Who will live in Gaza after reconstruction?
The Settlers and the Ceasefire
Today there are more than half a million Israelis living in illegal settlements built on Palestinian land. Most of these Israelis were drawn to the settlements by cheap home prices, but a significant number are vocal ideologues motivated by the concept of “Eretz Israel” or Greater Israel. When using the term settler in this post, I’m referring to this latter group. The settlers advocate for the expansion of Israel’s borders including the annexation of the West Bank, which many Israeli Jews refer to as “Judea and Samaria”, and since 7 OCT 2023 the reoccupation of Gaza. Since the 1970s, the settlers have been an influential constituency in Israel and have consistently demonstrated their ability to influence Israeli elections and policy. Over the next six weeks, the settlers will likely seek to undermine the current ceasefire and any attempt to extend the agreement to phases two or three.
A Fragile Truce
The news of a potential cease-fire and hostage release is long overdue and should be celebrated as good news. The Israeli hostages and civilians in Gaza have endured almost incalculable suffering over the past fourteen months and it is criminal that it has taken this long to come to any sort of resolution. However, before we carried away in celebrations, we should be wary of what comes next. The next four days will provide ample opportunity for this deal to unravel and there are definitely those who will seek to undermine it in hopes of continuing the war. Even if this deal makes it to Sunday, I believe there is a strong possibility of this deal falling apart over the next several months. It should be remembered that brief wars in 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2021 all ended with deals that did not hold.
Tracking the Political Transition in Syria
What lies next for Syria is impossible to predict, but it won’t stop many from trying. Revolutions and regime-changes are volatile capable of transforming in ways we can’t imagine.However, I’m not without my own reservations. Syria’s future likely rests not only in its new leaders but also in the international community and its response (sanctions relief is absolutely necessary). Rather than attempt to write my own thoughts on the current events in Syria, I would just like to share links to some of the most best reporting on what has happened and is happening in Syria now.
Three Books I read in 2024
At the beginning of every year I typically set a goal to read a set number of books. While most of the books I read deal with the history of the Middle East, I try to read on a broad spectrum of topics including general history, current events, and human interests/memoirs/biographies, and general fiction (typically novels, but also graphic novels like Shubeik Lubeik and Persepolis). However for the purpose of this blog I will only write about books that are relevant to the Middle East. As this year ends, I would like to highlight three books I’ve read in the last year that I find particularly relevant to understanding the region and its history.
Is the Nativity a Palestinian Story?
There are several parallels between the plight of Palestinians today and the plight of first century Jews living under Roman-rule which has prompted some Palestinians to use the symbols of the Nativity to critique Israel’s occupation and treatment of Palestinians.
Searching for an Iran that never was
There is a prevailing view among many that the status of women in the Iran has regressed since the Islamic Revolution and while there is a portion of truth in this view, the historical reality is more complex.
Israel’s Endgame in the Golan
On 8 DEC, the Israeli Defense Force entered a demilitarized portion of Syrian territory abutting the Occupied Golan Heights violating a 1974 agreement between Syria and Israel prompting questions about what is Israel’s end goal.