The Settlers and the Ceasefire
On Sunday, many Palestinians and Israelis celebrated as the recently brokered ceasefire began. Hamas released three Israeli hostages, Israeli bombs in Gaza fell silent for the first time in 15 months, and Israel began releasing Palestinian prisoners. Around Israel, Gaza, and the globe the moves were met with a tenuous hope for at the very least a de-escalation of the regional war that wrought devastation and death. However not everyone is happy with the ceasefire. In the early hours of the ceasefire, Itamar Ben Gvir, the outspoken leader Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power), exited the current Israeli government in protest of the deal calling it “a victory for terrorism.” More disturbing groups of settlers, likely associated with the Price Tag movement, rioted and attacked Palestinians in the West Bank protesting the release of Palestinian prisoners.
Today there are more than half a million Israelis living in illegal settlements built on Palestinian land. Most of these Israelis were drawn to the settlements by cheap home prices, but a significant number are vocal ideologues motivated by the concept of “Eretz Israel” or Greater Israel. When using the term settler in this post, I’m referring to this latter group. The settlers advocate for the expansion of Israel’s borders including the annexation of the West Bank, which many Israeli Jews refer to as “Judea and Samaria”, and since 7 OCT 2023 the reoccupation of Gaza. Since the 1970s, the settlers have been an influential constituency in Israel and have consistently demonstrated their ability to influence Israeli elections and policy. Over the next six weeks, the settlers will likely seek to undermine the current ceasefire and any attempt to extend the agreement to phases two or three.
Origins
The settler movement’s origins lay in Israel’s victory in the 1967 war and its acquisition of the West Bank, Golan Heights, Gaza, and the Sinai Peninsula. The settler movement emerged out of religious Zionism, which viewed Jewish political and spiritual salvation through a recreation of the Biblical kingdom of Israel under religious law. The most influential early settler movement was Gush Emunim (Bloc of the Faithful) under the leadership of Rabbi Zvi Yehuda Kook. This Orthodox Jewish movement advocated for settlement of all of the West Bank, sent members to erect crude settlements throughout the newly conquered territory, and lobbied politicians for recognition. The movement borrowed elements of nationalism and messianism. Members of Gush Emunim saw there efforts as bringing about the coming of the messiah.
Strains of extremism and religious fanaticism emerged within the settlement movement in the late 1970s with the formation of the Jewish Underground. The movement orchestrated a series terrorist attacks against Palestinians and even plotted to blow up the Dome of the Rock. Many of the perpetrators of these acts enjoyed the state’s leniency as many were released from prison early at the request of politicians seeking settler support. Rabbi Meir Kahane injected another strain of extremism into the settler movement advocating for the forceable expulsion of Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza and expansion of Jewish settlements. Today the settler movement consists of a collection of political parties, activist groups, and lobbies united by the goal of maintaining Israel’s control over the West Bank and in some cases expanding its borders through Jewish settlement. This movement includes groups like the Hilltop Youth and the Religious Zionist and Otzma Yehudit parties. Since the 1970s, Netanyahu’s Likud party has generally supported elements of the settler agenda and enjoyed their patronage in return.
The Settlers and 7 October
The settler movement’s response to Hamas’ violent attacks on 7 OCT 2023 was a mixture of grief, anger, and opportunism. As with much of Israeli society, the settlers were horrified by the brutality of Hamas attack and wanted vengeance, but they also saw an opportunity to advance their own goals. Within weeks of the attacks, prominent settler activist Daniella Weiss and her allies were actively campaigning to resettle Gaza and ethnically cleanse the territory of its Palestinian population. Simultaneously, settlers in the West Bank were escalating their attacks on Palestinian civilians and collaborating with the army to displace Palestinian villages.
With the focus on Gaza and an expanding regional, the settlers moved quickly to push their agenda. In the weeks and months after 7 OCT, settlers expanded their attacks on Palestinian villages, infrastructure, and civilians often with the backing of the Israeli armed forces and some Israeli officials. The afore mentioned Ben Gvir moved to arm Jewish civilians, including settlers, with more than 10K assault rifles. While settler violence proliferated throughout the West Bank (it has been on the rise for years), the Israeli government largely turned a blind eye to it. Without fear of prosecution, the settlers often use force and intimidation against Palestinians. Some settlers even went so far as to erect a billboard in the West Bank declaring, “There is no future in Palestine” in Arabic.
Billboard erected outside Ramallah with the text "There is no future in Palestine"
As the focus of the war moved away from Gaza and toward Lebanon so did the settlers. In the late summer of 2014, Israeli bombing pummeled Hezbollah positions in south Lebanon and the IDF occupied a large number of villages in the area. Some settlers used the opportunity to advocate for further expansion of Israel’s borders. The Uri Tzafon Movement, a religious settler organization, began advocating for the settlement of south Lebanon. The movement’s leaders even went as far as sending a group into southern Lebanon and setting up an encampment before the IDF intervened and sent them back to Lebanon. After the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, settler activists began calling for expansion into Syria after the IDF occupied buffer zone between Syria and Israel created in 1974 as an end to hostilities after the 1973 War.
Opposition to the Ceasefire
Whether it is the settler movement’s messianic roots or anxieties about losing their homes in a land-for-peace deal similar to the one that returned the Sinai to Egypt in exchange for diplomatic recognition, the settlers have more often than not spurned diplomacy if land is on the line. Israeli settlers opposed the Camp David Accords, they opposed Oslo Accords while actively working to undermine them, and have generally favored brute force to achieve their aims. After the resignation of Ben Gvir from the government, Finance Minister and leader of the Religious Zionist Party Bezalel Smotrich remains the most influential settler politician in the government. Smotrich has been vocal in his opposition to the ceasefire and threatened to resign if the war in Gaza is not resumed after the six weeks. He’s given a number of interviews since news of the ceasefire broke and expressed his plans for the future of Gaza saying":
“Gaza is destroyed and broken, uninhabitable, and it will remain so. Do not be impressed by the forced cries of joy of our enemies, this is an animalistic society which sanctifies death and dances on the ruins of its life. Very soon, we will erase their smile again and replace it with cries of grief and the wails of those who were left with nothing."
Smotrich currently could play the role of executioner given Netanyahu’s slim margins holding his government together. If Smotrich decides to resign, Netanyahu’s government would collapse. The opposition has signaled that it would be willing to save Netanyahu’s government in order to preserve a ceasefire. The question remains would Netanyahu be willing to get into bed with opposition parties that have been hell-bent on prosecuting him on corruption charges for the better part of a decade. Under the current circumstances, Smotrich holds a fair amount of leverage.
The bigger wildcard in all of this is the Price Tag doctrine. Price Tag is a settler policy of retribution against Palestinians for any perceived injustice to the settler community. Settler adherents to the Price Tag doctrine carry acts of violence and vandalism against Palestinians in response Israeli efforts to reign in settler activity. Given the current circumstance, settler extremists could escalate violence in the West Bank with the hopes of provoking a response from Hamas that could be deemed a breach of the ceasefire agreement and justify an Israeli military response. On Sunday, Price Tag fanatics killed a fourteen year-old Palestinian boy in response to the release of Palestinian prisoners.
After more than a year of war much of Israeli society is exhausted, weary, and ready for a return to some semblance of normalcy. However, the minority settler movement is willing to use all of the tools at their disposal to continue the war in Gaza. Their aim is greater than just the defeat of Hamas its Jewish hegemony in all of historic Palestine by whatever means necessary.
